Department of Economic Studies
Principal Areas of Research
Basic fieldsof research in the Department of Economic Studies,Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (IOS, RAS)coverthe analysis of economic processes in the Eastandwithin this domain the department deals most intensively withthe followingfour study areas:
Long-term forecasting of the world developmentandthe prospects forthe countries of the East,
Food problem and development of agriculture inthe countries of the East,
Global energy problem and its specificsin the countries of Asia including its influence on theinternational relations inthe East,
Place of Russia in the international division of labor in relation to the prospectsof Asiandevelopment.
- In the field of forecasting the department's staff continues the work of the Joint Forecasting Sector, which functioned in the Institute of Oriental Studies in 1980s. Constant qualitative changes in parameters of world development require the expansion of research framework, which currently includes a wide range of problems related to the population growth, its food supply, changes in energy situation, formation of a new system of productive forces related to the fourth industrial revolution, based on robotics and artificial intelligence.
- The second direction is traditional for our orientalstudies, but it has acquired new urgency in recent years in due to the worsening of the world food supply problem.
- The energy problem remains relevant for all the countries of the East, to both producers and exporters, tofuel importers and consumers. Issues related to hydrocarbon fuel have becomeparticularly acute. In recent years, alternative energy sourcesexperience a boost in development.
- The fourth direction represents the applied aspects of all the studies conducted in the department.
Forecast studies are carried jointly by our staff researchers, by specialists from other departments of the institute and by experts from external research organizations and universities. Research results on these issuesinclude a series of publications by thedepartmentstaff in the yearbooks of the IOS, RAS, in "Oriental Analytics" and are also available on the institute’s website where forecasts up to 2050 on the demographic situation, food and energy supply in the countries of the world and countries of the East can be found alongside with versions of possible business and investment strategies in these countries. These publications are available both in Russian and in English.
Forecastscenariosup to the year 2050for basic countries and regions of the East (including China, Japan, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, oil exporting and several other Arab countries) had been evaluated by more than 40 experts that estimated probabilities inthe offered scenarios.The results of this estimation conducted by specialists from Institute of Oriental Studies, Institute ofthe Far East, RAS, from Institute of Asian and African States of Moscow State University, from Moscow State Institute of International Relations, and several other universities and academic institutes are also published in “EasternAnalytics”.
Theteam of department researchers had prepared and published in 2017 the study "Countries of the East by 2050: Population, Energy, Food and Investment Climate." This book presents aggregated forecast well into the mid-century contrasting most probable scenarios and options of development.Various probabilities were considered and theresultant forecasts had been merged into a comprehensive study that is supplemented by an analysis of investment climatesrequired to pinpointing the needs of controlling the forecasted economic processes.